Leprechauns speak out!

Friday, October 30, 2009

NEWS SNAPS FROM IRELAND

SECOND LISBON TREATY PASSED
The Lisbon Treaty has been passed by the Irish electorate in a second referendum. The final result was 67.1% in favour to 32.9% against, which represents a 20.5% swing to the 'yes' campaign. The result may have enduring consequences for Ireland with those in favour of the treaty arguing that voting 'yes' will assist Ireland in emerging from her economic woes. Many neutrals however remain bitterly despondent that the political elite were able to overturn the verdict of the original referendum with Irish democracy being the ultimate victim. Needless to say the various political parties are lining up to take the credit for the victory (only Sinn Fein opposed the treaty). Had the treaty been rejected again then the government would surely have collapsed. The fact that Fine Gael and the Labour Party actually campaigned in favour of a 'yes' vote, and thus provided support for the government, is an irony not lost on many of their supports who so desperately want to see Fianna Fail removed from office. Only the Czech Republic now stand in the way of full EU ratification of the Lisbon Treaty.

FIANNA FAIL GOVERNMENT SURVIVES Despite now being ranked third in the opinion polls Fianna Fail continues as the main party in government thanks to a combination of factors. Firstly the Lisbon treaty was passed, thanks in part to the sharp focusing of the collective mind of the electorate on economic matters, with the underlying fear that rejecting the treaty (again) would be bad economically for Ireland. Secondly the government has pushed through the bad bank (NAMA) legislation which will remove most of the toxic loans on the books of the major banks to a new government agency who will hope to recoup the state investment over time (a decade or even two). By doing this the banks will be free to start lending to businesses again and thus stimulate economic activity. Thirdly the governments coaltion partners, the Green Party, have decided not to commit political suicide and have instead renegotiated a deal with Fianna Fail that they claim will result in their core polices being implemented. Had they rejected the revised deal and pulled out of government they would surely have been pummeled into oblivion by an electorate in very unforgiving mood. Finally, there are signs that the government is about to tackle the big thorn of public sector pay. Despite repeated threats of strikes by the public service staff unions there is little sympathy for the public sector workers from those outside of what is seen as a cushy protectedgolden circle. The vast majority of recent job losses and economic pain has been endured by those in the private business sector and not by state employees who are rarely fired. Irish public servants continue to be among the highest paid in Europe. The government must privately acknowledge that while these pay cuts will be unpopular among public service staff, that the other half of the country (in the private sector) will be cheering them on as it is they who have suffered most. This divide and conquer strategy will likely get the government through 2009 and into 2010 at which time NAMA will be up and running and the banks may be lending. By 2011 the economy should be improving, just in time for the next general election. That seems to be the government plan.

RECESSION PUTTING MORE BUSINESSES AT RISK The budget that is to be announced later this year by the Finance Minister Brian Lenihan is having an effect even before the details are made public. In anticipation of further tax hikes and reduced benefits consumers are spending less in the shops than at any time over the last two years. The average spend in retail outlets is now 46 Euro, down from 67 euro in 2008. A report by Retail Excellence Ireland has found that sales of mens-wear is down 24%, ladies-wear by 16%, footwear down by 18%, giftware and homeware by 19% and even the sale of groceries is down by 11%. Further job losses and business closures are inevitable.

DRINK-DRIVE ALCOHOL LIMIT TO BE FURTHER REDUCED Despite protests from rural publicans and even some T.D.s the legal blood-alcohol level for drivers is to be reduced from 80mg to 50mg.Several other countries in the EU have opted for a 0mg limit but this seems unlikely to be proposed in Ireland.

IRELAND TO FACE FRANCE IN WORLD CUP PLAYOFFS A 2-2 draw with Italy in Croke Park by the Irish soccer team has meant that the 'boys in green' must settle for a play-off berth to try to secure qualification to the World Cup finals in South Africa next year. A fine display by the Irish team against the world champions was followed up by a drab 0-0 draw against Montenegro in what had become a meaningless final group match. Ireland was drawn against France in a two-match playoff to decide who travels to the worlds biggest sporting event. The wheels of political cynicism had been turning in FIFA prior to the final game. Aware that the big guns of France, Portugal and Russia could be drawn against each other in an open draw for the four play-offs, FIFA decided to seed the draw in order to give these more favoured teams a better chance of qualifying. It remains to be seen if this blatantly partisan decision backfires on footballs ruling authority. Lets hope so.