News from Ireland

NEWS SNAPS FROM IRELAND
=======================

NORTHERN IRELAND PARLIAMENT TO BE RECONVENED

In yet another historic landmark the Northern
Ireland Assembly is to be reconvened on May
8th after a deal between the Unionist DUP and
Nationalist Sinn Fein was finally struck. Prior
to the announcement the DUP had never directly
negotiated with Sinn Fein. Ian Paisley and
Gerry Adams had never actually spoken to each
other! The significance of the renewal of the
Northern parliament in the context of recent
Irish history cannot be overstated. Irish leader
Bertie Ahearn was quoted as saying that the
agreement had 'the potential to transform the
future of this island'.

GENERAL ELECTION TO BE HELD ON MAY 24

Taoiseach Bertie Ahearn has finally set the date
for the general election which will be held on
May 24th. Recent polls have made very bad reading
for the current Government coalition of Fianna
Fail and the PDs. Of course anything can happen
in the next few weeks and it is expected that
campaigning will be fierce as the most expensive
election in Irish history gets under way.

Fianna Fail: under pressure from several angles
but have a booming economy, the release of the
SSIA funds and their experience of being in
government to present to the electorate. Are
Bertie Ahearn's teflon coat-tails as long as
they use to be?

Fine Gael: looking to make big gains and are
predicted to do so after the disastrous outing
in the last election. Doubts still remain however
about the choice of Enda Kenny as a prospective
Taoiseach.

Labour: seem to be stagnant in the polls but are
likely to be 'king-makers' when the ballots are
finally counted. Labour have repeatedly stated
that they will not share power with Fianna Fail but
it remains to be seen if the alternative 'rainbow'
coalition of which they are an integral part can
muster an overall parliamentary majority.

The Green Party: Surely the Green Party can ride
the eco-wave to more seats. A Fianna Fail and
Green Party government cannot be ruled out.

Sinn Fein: after being predicted to make big
gains according to successive polls the Sinn Fein
vote seems to have stalled in recent months. They
should still make gains but their overall
unpopularity with the other parties may yet
exclude them from any coalition.

The Progressive Democrats: The PDs must be the
most worried of all of the political parties.
Their outstanding performance in the last election
staggered commentators but they are going to have
to do some serious canvassing if they want a
repeat showing.

Independents: Local issues always dominate
elections so there will undoubtedly be a good
representation of independents after the next
poll. Quite a few of these have leanings towards
Fianna Fail and their vote could yet be crucial
to Bertie Ahearn's ambition of staying in power.

PROPERTY PRICES BEGIN TO FALL BACK

The inevitable end to the Irish property
phenomenon looks to be finally in sight. For half
a decade various economic bodies and magazines
have forecast the end of the huge growth in Irish
house prices. It looks as if the corner is about
to be turned. It is expected that the tipping
point of supply meeting demand may be met in 2007
but this depends on a number of factors, including
overall economic performance, EU interest rates
and the willingness of foreign workers to live and
earn their wages in Ireland.

With 10% of the entire population now being
classed as 'foreign national' the effect of a
large number of these leaving Ireland to return to
their homeland (and thus not needing rented
accommodation) remains to be seen.

It is estimated that there are now as many as
120,000 unoccupied investment and holiday
'second-homes' lying idle. With construction at
an all-time high (up to 80,000 units annually in
recent years), it remains to be seen if the
slowdown will develop into a full-scale 'bust' or
if there will be a gradual 'soft-landing'.

The Political establishment is not helping. All of
the parties had made promises to reform the
punitive stamp duty that occurs every time a
property is sold. On the sale of a EURO 400,000
property (approx US$528,000), the Government pockets
EURO 24,000 in stamp duty (US$ 32,000 approx), every
time the house is sold. There is little doubt that
part of the reason for the slowdown in activity in
the property market is that builders and investors
are waiting to see which political parties form
the next government and what their policy on
stamp duty will be.

It would not come as not much surprise however, if
the market took off again after the general
election especially if interest rates were to
moderate at about 4.5% or even fall back. On the
other hand if investors bail out of the property
market and the slowdown in construction sees an
exodus of foreign workers then the pain could be
very severe indeed

IRISH ECONOMIC GROWTH TO CONTINUE

The Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI)
has forecast growth in the Irish economy by as
much as 5.4% in 2007 but expected this growth
rate to slow in subsequent years. It forecasts
inflation of 4.6% which will ease to 2.6%. One of
the main reasons why the ESRI is so optimistic in
regard to economic growth is the release of the
SSIA funds into the overall economy. The
government sponsored SSIA scheme will pump
billions of consumer spending power into the
economy which should keep it progressing well
into 2008.

OPEN SKIES DEAL TO BENEFIT IRELAND

The new arrangements negotiated between the
EU and the US will allow for greater access
to a greater number of cities on both sides
of the Atlantic. Already Aer Lingus have
announced new routes with the direct flights
from Dublin to San Francisco, Washington and
Orlando certain to be among the most popular.
The deal will also likely see the entry into
the long-haul market of Ryanair and the other
budget airlines.

The controversial 'Shannon stopover' will be
ended as part of the deal. Previously all
flights from the US to Ireland had to stop at
Shannon airport in the west of the country.
The new deal is also likely to facilitate
smaller airports around the country getting
a piece of the action.

DECLINE IN ALCOHOL CONSUMPTION IN IRELAND

A report commissioned by the drinks industry has
shown that consumption of alcohol in Ireland has
fallen back by 7% since 2001. The Business School
at Dublin City University conducted the research.
The findings would seem to give merit to the view
that Irish attitudes to drinking and especially to
attending pubs is beginning to change. The smoking
ban has long been suspected of having an adverse
effect on alcohol consumption in pubs and, together
with a much tougher regime of enforcement in
respect of drink-driving, it is clear that many
people are going out a lot less and thus drinking
less.

PADRAIG PEARSE LETTER TO REMAIN IN IRELAND

The last letter written by Padraig Pearse from his
Kilmainham Jail cell has been sold for EURO
120,000. Pearse was one of the architects of the
famous Easter Rising in 1916. He was executed
shortly after the letter was written. The letter
was purchased by an anonymous benefactor on behalf
of the state and will be displayed in the National
Museum of Ireland.

IRISH CRICKET TEAM CAUSE SENSATION

The very English game of cricket has proved to be
the latest playground for the display of Irish
sporting prowess. Participating in the World Cup
in Jamaica and the West Indies the Irish team were
regarded as no-hopers. A surprising draw against
Zimbabwe was followed by a sensational victory over
Pakistan which saw the Irish team progress to the
final stages of the competition. Australia were the
eventual tournament winners.

Voice your opinion on these news issues here:

http://www.ireland-information.com/cgi-bin/newsletterboardindex.cgi


A-O-L USERS GO HERE